Realistic Exports Proceeds in `09-10 Likely to dip 10 per cent : ASSOCHAM
April 28, 2009
New Delhi: The Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (ASSOCHAM) has forecast a minimum of 10% dip in export proceeds of India during fiscal 2009-10 in the backdrop of continued demand constriction in overseas market especially US, EU and UK.
In its preliminary assessment on Export Targets Vs. Reality, the ASSOCHAM is of the view that in US alone, nearly 60% fall in export proceeds of India have been witnessed in 3rd and 4th quarter of fiscal 2008-09. US being the largest trade partner of India will continue to suffer slowdown in 2009-10, the reflection of which would naturally fall on India’s export to it.
Likewise, the scenario in EU and UK would remain so in the current fiscal and therefore India needs to be realistic as far as its export targets are concerned. The Deptt. of Commerce & Industry had set export targets of US$ 200 billion for current fiscal. Against this, it is highly likely that the total export proceeds on realistic basis would not be more than US$ 160 billion. It may be mentioned here that in fiscal 2008-09, the export proceeds brought India revenues to an extent of US$ 170 billion.
The assessment carried out under supervision of Mr. D S Rawat, ASSOCHAM Secretary General points out that the most prolific export earning sectors will remain under severe stress in 2009-10 because of their demand constrictions overseas and lack of incentivized policies on domestic front.
These include sectors such as textiles, handicrafts, carpets, leather, gems & jewellery, marine products including spice exports. Textile sector which is a major revenue earning source will continue to face technological upgradation as sufficient funds are unlikely to be allocated for it.
Job losses will continue to take place in the sector and it will face much more severe competition from neighbouring countries such as Pakistan, Sri Lanka etc. which will squeeze its competitive edge in economies of scale especially EU, US and ASEAN including Latin America, said Mr. Rawat.
The situation will be more or less same for other sectors already identified in the assessment and due to this, India’s export competitiveness will erode amounting to 10% dip in its export earning in year 2009-10, adds the ASSOCHAM Chief.
According to ASSOCHAM, the corporate sector expects the period of downturn in the economy to go on until JANUARY 2010 and it is only after that the economy will start bouncing back and the fiscal packages announced by the government will start paying richer dividends to Indian Inc.
The last quarter of the current fiscal will bring in maximum earnings to India through exports as by then, revival will have taken place in saturated market for creating demand for Indian products.
The ASSOCHAM is also of the opinion that just as the government revised its export targets for fiscal 2008-09 by bringing it down to US$ 175 billion from earlier target of US$ 200 billion, in the later part of the current fiscal, the Ministry of Commerce & Industry might do the same as well in later part of current fiscal.
In fiscal 2008-09, total export proceeds realised stood at less than US$ 170 billion, US$ 5 billion lesser than the revised targets. However, the ASSOCHAM also holds that input costs would further reduce because of stiffer competition and manufacturing will pick up especially capital goods industry registering a growth of nearly 20% in fiscal 2009-10.
According to Mr. Jindal, further recovery will take place not only in steel, cement, automobile and engineering sector but India’s food processing industry will grow reasonably as value addition to it will grow faster with focus on processing. Its reflection will become visible in 2010-11 in which India’s growth especially on export front will multiply because it will by then emerge a stronger economy to give tougher competition in Indian sub-continent including China.
However, the assessment of the ASSOCHAM concludes that since from all angles, 2009-10 will be tougher not only India’s exports will suffer but its overall GDP growth will shrink, posing tough challenge to policy makers to come out with policy packages for industry to keep it immune from global shocks.
General elections - Phase III Polls on 30th April
April 28, 2009
New Delhi: With the completion of second round of polling in 265 Lok Sabha seats, the world’s largest democratic exercise enters the third stage with the electoral machinery gearing up for the third phase of polling on 30th April in nine States and two Union Territories.
In all, 1567 candidates are in fray for 107 Lok Sabha Constituencies, thus averaging 14.64 contestants per seat. The contestants also include 101 women candidates contesting from seven States, as there are no female contestants in this phase from the States of Jammu & Kashmir, Sikkim and UTs of Dadra & Nagar Haveli and Daman & Diu.
The maximum number of the Lok Sabha Constituencies going to polls in the 3rd phase is 26 from Gujarat, followed by 16 in Madhya Pradesh, 15 in Uttar Pradesh, 14 in West Bengal, 11 each in Bihar and Karnataka, 10 in Maharashtra and one each in J&K, Sikkim, Dadra & Nagar Haveli and Daman & Diu.
Amongst the seven National Parties, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is contesting on 102 seats in the 3rd phase, followed by the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) which is contesting on 95 and the Indian National Congress (INC) on 93 parliamentary constituencies out 107 going to polls on 30th April. The seats contested by remaining four National Parties in this phase are : CPI - 9, CPM - 15, NCP - 19 and the RJD - 8. Amongst these Parties, the maximum number of female candidates is from INC (11), followed by BJP (6), BSP (3), CPI (2) and CPM (1).
The completion of polling process in 3rd phase on 30th April would mean that polling would be over in 372 Lok Sabha constituencies (with polling already over in 124 and 141 seats in phase I and phase II respectively). The polling for remaining 171 Lok Sabha seats would take place in two phases on 7th May for 85 seats and 13th May for 86 seats, thus completing the polling process for 543 Lok Sabha seats. The counting of votes would take place on 16th of May and is expected to be completed on the same day. (Source: PIB)
Bollywood actor Feroz Khan passes away
April 28, 2009
New Delhi - Bollywood actor and producer Feroz Khan died on Monday after a prolonged battle with cancer. He was 69. Khan died at 1:30 am at his farmhouse in the southern city of Bangalore.
He is survived by actor son Fardeen Khan and daughter Laila Rajpal. His funeral is scheduled to take place in the city later on Monday, his family said.
A leading Bollywood star through the 1970s and 1980s who appeared in more than 50 movies, Khan had a place in the hearts of millions of Hindi film lovers with his romantic male leads in blockbusters like Qurbani and Jaanbaaz.
He also made Dharmatma, the first Indian film to be shot in Afghanistan. The film was inspired by the Hollywood movie The Godfather.
The filmmaker who led a quiet and simple life in Bangalore had been battling cancer for the last year and was under treatment in a Mumbai hospital.
Feroz Khan was last seen on the screen in the 2007 comedy Welcome.
India General Elections 2009 - Round one begins
April 15, 2009
The Great Indian Elections fight has begun amid tight security with the first round polling for 124 seats across 15 states and two union territories. 143 million of the country’s 700 million voters cast their vote across 1.85 lakh polling stations to select India’s next government.
Voting has begun at 700 hrs and would end at 1700 hrs in most places, except in naxal-infested areas where it would close at 1500 hrs.
While all 20 seats in Kerala, 11 in Chhattisgarh and two in Meghalaya are going to polls in a single phase today, polling would be held in 13 out of 40 seats in Bihar, 16 out of 80 in Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra 13 (48), Andhra Pradesh 22 (42), Jharkhand 6 (14), Orissa 10 (21), Assam 3 (14), Arunachal Pradesh 2 (2), Manipur 1 (2) and Jammu and Kashmir 1 (6). Polling is also underway to 154 assembly segments in Andhra and 70 in Orissa.
Some of the prominent names in this first phase of elections include RJD’s Lalu Prasad, Murli Manohar Joshi, Rajiv Pratap Rudy, Yashwant Sinha, B Dattatreya from the BJP, Renuka Chowdhury, Shashi Tharoor, D Purandeswari from the Congress, Praful Patel from NCP, Akabar Ahmed ‘Dumpy’ from BSP and Manoj Tiwari from the Samajwadi Party (SP).
Elections to all the 543 constituencies would be completed on May 13 and counting will take place on May 16.